Paul Ogden Predicts the 2024 Election

The following is a guest column written by a good friend of the blog and fellow blogger, Paul Ogden of “Ogden on Politics” fame!

We have missed Paul’s insights and are more than happy to publish this guest piece by him with his predictions covering tonight’s elections.

Take it away Paul!

ELECTION 2024 PREDICTIONS

With this being the closest presidential election in American history (at least according to the polls), I was originally grateful to have ended my OgdenonPolitics blog after the 2022 midterms.  After all, my traditional prediction about the outcome of the election is little better than a 50-50 guess this time.  My critics love it when I’m wrong and I hesitate to give them ammunition.  This morning though I woke up with the urge to dust off the crystal ball and speculate on the outcome.   I had to get back in the game and appreciate this opportunity for a guest column.

The race is a tossup but, if I had to bet, I would wager that Harris comes out on top.

Vice President Kamala Harris is part of a highly unpopular administration.  History will no doubt treat President Biden more favorably than the voters of today, but that is irrelevant to the outcome of the 2024 election.  Harris is carrying Biden’s luggage and there is no skycap to help her.

Given the playing field, the 2024 election should have been a slam dunk for Republicans.  However, the GOP nominated the highly unpopular Donald Trump.  While Trump won the presidency in 2016, eking out a narrow electoral victory while losing the popular vote, the former President has lost every general election since.  While he has had numerous opportunities to expand his fervent base of supporters, he has invariably chosen to go in the other direction.  This election he is betting on the support of men and seemingly written off women voters.   It’s a strange choice since women make up 53% of the electorate.

Looking over the map I have put together (thanks www.270towin.com), I am guessing (and it’s little more than a modestly educated estimation) Harris wins the blue wall states (Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania) and adds North Carolina.  I am handing Nevada and Arizona to Trump.  I’m most iffy on Georgia.  My knowledge of the Peach State (I have family that lives in Georgia), suggests that the Atlanta and its norther suburbs will vote heavily for Harris.  But I have trouble getting over the polls in that state most which Trump consistently ahead, albeit slightly.

Putting Georgia in the Trump column, Harris wins 302-236.  No, that’s not even remotely a “landslide,” even electorally.   People who say that have no comprehension of history predating the 21st Century.   If you want to know what real popular and electoral vote landslides are, look at the presidential contests involving Reagan, George H.W. Bush, LBJ and FDR.

No, I don’t think Harris is going to win Iowa.  But the Ann Selzer Iowa poll over the weekend (which shows Harris with a three point lead in the Hawkeye State) suggests that the other pollsters are adjusting the numbers too much to offset the traditional Trump undercount and “herding” so as to not have outlier polls. The highly regarded Selzer is one of the few pollsters who takes the data straight up and doesn’t try to adjust the sample for anticipated turnout.  I was originally ready to give Wisconsin, a state very similar to Iowa, to Trump but the Selzer poll convinced me to leave it in Harris’ column.

I point to three factors pushing Harris ahead of Trump.  First is the closing message of the candidates.  Harris stayed on point, offering hope and inspiration.  Trump didn’t hammer issues favorable to Republicans, instead offering a negative portrait filled with doom, gloom and even violence.

Second, Harris’ strategy of reaching out to so-called “Nikki Haley Republicans” was smart.   In 2020, Republican-leaning voters crossed over to vote for Biden more than Democrats crossed over to vote for Trump.  That allowed Biden to win several swing states he would have otherwise lost.   Harris is trying to increase that crossover vote.  Meanwhile, Trump simply wrote off the 20% or so of Republicans who continued to vote for Haley even after she left the race.

Finally, the get out the vote effort (GOTV) is a huge advantage for Harris.  Harris has motivated volunteers blanketing the swing states to ensure that every Harris supporting voter gets to the polls.   Trump meanwhile outsourced his GOTV effort to Elon Musk and Charlie Kirk of Turning Point USA, neither of whom have ever run a turnout operation.  Musk appears to have used Trump campaign money to hire non-political people to knock on doors.  By all accounts, the Trump GOTV effort is falling far short of past efforts.

As to the Senate, my expectations are that the Republicans take control with 51 seats, scoring pickups in Montana and West Virginia.  The bad news for the GOP is that I expect the Republican challengers will lose very winnable seats in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Nevada and Arizona.  Democrats have a chance of beating Ted Cruz in Texas and Rick Scott in Florida, but I expect those efforts will fall just short.

The U.S. House is currently 220 Republicans, 212 Democrats.  I expect those numbers to be approximately reversed by the election.   In short, I’m predicting a Democratic President and House and Republican Senate.  I will also go out on a limb (sarcasm alert) and predict that if Harris wins, Trump will not give a concession speech and say the election was stolen.

Closer to home, I am predicting Mike Braun wins the Governor’s race by 6-8 points.    Democrat Jennifer McCormick probably could have won if she found an issue or two to run to the right of Braun.  Democrats win in Indiana by exhibiting some conservative bona fides.  McCormick simply ran to the left of Braun.  That is unlikely to put her over the top in the Hoosier state.   I expect that Secretary of State Todd Rokita’s re-election bid against Democrat Destiny Wells will be the closest statewide contest, but the incumbent will win by 4-6 points.    Rep. Jim Banks has had the least competition this election cycle and should win the Senate seat Braun is vacating by at least 10 points.  

I had a friend growing up who would always warn to “expect the unexpected” to happen.  Good advice for those trying to guess what will happen this election.