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Tuesday, November 27, 2018

President Trump’s Unpopularity Sinking The Republican Party

Three weeks have now passed since the congressional midterms were held. We are going to give it to you straight we Republicans are in big trouble! It’s YUGE! We have lost 7 governorships, 393 state legislative seats and 7 state legislative chambers since 2017. Not to mention 40 U.S. House seats. Orange County, California once the bedrock of Republicanism on the West Coast is now trending Democratic. The GOP went from having all 4 congressional seats that were part of Orange County to having none after this election. Orange County voted for the Democratic Presidential Candidate in 2016. The first time in 80 years the GOP’s Presidential nominee lost Orange County. Here in Indiana we lost our first state senate seat in 20 years as well as 3 state house seats. Our friend Paul Ogden has more on the results here in Indiana over at his blog today. 

Gallup has President Trump’s disapproval rating at 60%. The President has yet to have his approval rating climb into the 50 percentage range or higher even once in his almost two years in office. All over the country the GOP has lost ground in the suburbs. Not just in the suburbs of Chicago, New York and Los Angeles. But we lost seats in Texas, Florida, South Carolina, Georgia, Kansas and we even lost a congressional seats in Oklahoma and Mia Love’s seat in Utah. Utah by the way is so hostile to Democrats that Hillary Clinton almost came in third to Evan McMullin in 2016. To assert as many of our fellow Republicans do that Trump was not a factor in this is at best willful blindness and at worst being delusional. 

The President did nothing to discourage misconceptions about why so many House Republicans lost. 

Morning after the midterms Trump proceeded to chide by name republicans who lost by saying they didn’t embrace him enough.  Basically Trump was in essence saying: “Those idiots, If only they had listened to ME! They didn’t build the wall fast enough!” This should lay to rest any doubts as to whether or not Trump can learn from his mistakes. If there is to be any chance of us avoiding a long stay in the political wilderness the party must run someone other than Donald Trump in 2020. There is no chance at all that Trump will become more Presidential or that Mike Pence will get a spine. Trump and Pence cannot and are not worthy of being saved. The only thing to be down is to go tell Donald Trump and his toady Mike Pence to go f__k themselves. It’s time to return to the ideals of the greatest republicans past and present, current and former, living and dead, Pro and Anti-Trump. Men and women like: Abe Lincoln, Chester Arthur, Teddy Roosevelt, Calvin Coolidge, Dwight Eisenhower, Barry Goldwater, Margret Chase Smith, Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan, Charles Percy, Susan B. Anthony, Mia Love, Gary Welsh, Paul Ogden, Charlie White, Rex Early, Christine Scales, Susan Wright, Fredrick Douglas, Charlie Sykes, Sarah Rumpf, Nikki Haley and many others.

For a more in depth look at Donald Trump’s approval rating and the impact on republicans checkout the video below:

UPDATE: Just found this discussion on the midterms and the 2020 elections:

Sunday, November 18, 2018

Eric Morris’s Letter to the Editor Regarding Campaign Finance Issues in Carmel

IR has received the following Letter To The Editor from Eric Morris a reader of the blog whom IR was proud to make a Welsh Saint last year. Eric discusses campaign finance reporting issues in Carmel in his letter. It is our hope that reprinting this letter leads to more discussion about what is going on in Carmel.

Eric Morris’s Letter:

Dear Editors:

Spring 2003:   Jim Brainard announces he will file campaign finance reports weekly in lead-up to Republican mayoral primary.  “This is being done in the spirit of openness and the public’s interest in—and right to know—who is exactly supporting these campaigns.”  The pre-primary report was “too late in the campaign.”   “[T]he people I’ve talked to are very concerned about the money being spent and where it’s coming from.”

October 2005:  Speaking of his and other campaign supporters fundraising for a Kokomo mayoral candidate, Brainard says “It may not be the best system, but it's the system we have.  There are safeguards, and everything is publicly recorded."

Prior to 2015 Republican primary:  Brainard and Woody Rider, Jeff Worrell, Keith Griffin, Sue Finkam, Bruce Kimball, Ron Carter, and Christine Pauley agree to support each other financially in primary.

April 17, 2015:  Pre-primary campaign finance reports due for the eight above.  No indications of financial support for each other.

May 5, 2015:  Primary election where all but Keith Griffin win.

October 16, 2015:  All eight above report supporting each other for over $22,000 each on the date of the primary itself.

April 20, 2018 Election Board meeting:  Tammy Baitz, Hamilton County Clerk of Court and Election Board member:  “Tammy also stated she had contacted Mayor Brainard on Wednesday (April 18, 2018) of this week and that his campaign had since filed corrected [2015] CFAs.”

May 18, 2018 Election Board:   Greg [Purvis] moved, and Bob [Becker] seconded, to have Tammy prepare letters to all the candidates listed in Mr. Morris’ letter, advising them that their [2015] reports would need to be amended.  It was approved unanimously.  Tammy will prepare letters for each candidate and submit to both Bob and Greg for their review before sending out to the candidates.

June 28, 2018 Election Board:  Republican Party Chairwoman, Laura Campbell, appointed Ray Adler as the new Republican member of the Board. Tammy nominated Ray as Chairman, Greg seconded, and it was approved.

October 12, 2018 Election Board Meeting:  Brainard’s lawyer admits the recently re-filed 2015 reports were still incorrect.  Board unanimously approves requiring new (fourth) reports from Brainard by midnight, October 19, and the other seven by October 29.

November 6, 2018:  Mr. Adler moved to dismiss the complaint as it appears that no violation had occurred with the original Brainard report filing and to declare the subsequent amended report filing moot. Seconded by Tammy Baitz.  After much discussion, the consensus of the board was to encourage the mayor to be more thorough in any future reporting but the amendment was rejected. The Motion to dismiss the complaint carried.

Also, on this date I wrote Lee Buckingham, Prosecutor, asking him to look into this issue and determine if the Board failed in its statutory duty to investigate expeditiously and thoroughly.  No response yet.

November 15, 2018:  Ray Adler writes to Hamilton County Reporter:  “Finally, anyone with grievances can obtain a [newly created] form from the Hamilton County Clerk, complete the information requested and return to the Clerk so that complaints may be dealt with expeditiously.”

I ask you, fellow engaged citizens, does it look like Ray Adler, Greg Purvis, and Tammy Baitz performed their duties well?  I call on Joe Weingarten to replace Greg Purvis with me on this Board.  I call on Lee Buckingham to review this.  I call on Ray Adler to determine whether focusing on creating a new grievance form is absurd when he thinks that the campaign finance forms required by the state legislature essentially carry no legal weight, much less legal repercussions, for filing incorrectly!  Mr. Purvis correctly saw that as a "novel theory".  This tale reads like a novel.

Thank you.


Eric S. Morris


Saturday, November 17, 2018

Why Governor Eric Holcomb Deserves Re-election Next Year

INDY REPUBLICAN has decided to switch gears before we get back to our regularly scheduled programming. We wanted to talk seriously with you all and in the interest of intellectual honesty. After having undertaken an exhaustive review of all that we know about Governor Eric Holcomb and will outline every reason in existence that is an iron clad argument for his reelection as Governor next year. WARNING: The remainder of this post is long and voluminous in detailing why Holcomb should be re-elected. Please take your time and read at your own leisure. 

Here it goes:

Hope you are all feeling enlightened after having now just read why Eric Holcomb should have a second term. 

Tuesday, November 6, 2018

Live Blogging the 2018 Mid Terms

7:52 PM Looks like our prediction that Congressman Barbara Comstock will lose in Virginia has come true.  So far State Senator Mike Delph has a narrow lead over his Democratic Challenger J D Ford. Mike Braun is currently leading Joe Donnelly for the U.S. Senate 57 to 38. Still early and with the problems in Johnson County and extended voting hours in Monroe County some results may not be in for sometime. Democrats are leading in the Governors races in Ohio and Florida. Senator Bill Nelson is currently leading Florida Republican Governor Rick Scott. Will blog as we get more information.

8:12 PM The Republicans have just moved into narrow lead for Governor and Senate races. With very preliminary results in from Texas Beto O’Rourke has a lead over Senator Ted Cruz. Texas Republican Congressman Will Hurd is behind his Democratic Challenger. Here in Indiana Mike Braun is still ahead of Joe Donnelly 55-40. State Senator Mike Delph is ahead 54-46. Overall indications would lend credence to the Democrats taking control of the U.S. House and the Republicans holding on in the Senate.

8:24 PM Democrat JD Ford has taken the lead over incumbent Republican State Senator 55-45. Delph might lose this one. Buckle Up! This is going to be a rough night!

8:40 PM With 46% of the vote in Texas reporting Democrat Beto O’Rourke is leading Incumbent Republican Rafael Cruz 52-47. Still a considerable amount of votes outstanding in Texas. But if we were Cruz we would be very concerned. Even if Cruz holds on it appears O’Rourke is driving up Democratic turnout in the Lone Star State.

9:19 PM Mike Braun has defeated Joe Donnelly and will be Indiana’s newest Senator. Mike Delph still trailing his Democratic Challenger looking bad for Delph. Democrats have taken the Governors Offices in Michigan and Ohio. And very tight races for Governor in Ohio and Florida. Florida Senate race still a nail biter. With 66% of the vote in O’Rourke still leading Cruz 50-48. Texas Republican Governor Greg Abbott has won his reelection bid. 

9:58 PM Looks like Senator Bob Menedez-D has held on in New Jersey. With 75% of the vote in Texas Ted Cruz is narrowly leading O’Rourke 50-49. In Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker-R is going back and forth with his Democratic Opponent Tony Evers. Although some have not called Florida we are going to call Florida’s Governors and US Senate race for the Republicans. With 18% of the vote reported in Minnesota Keith Ellison is leading Doug Wardlow 57-38. Still need more of the vote in but IR will stick with our gut feeling and say that unfortunately Keith Ellison will win this race.

10:21 PM In Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker has fallen behind Tony Evers. Democrats may pickup that seat. In Utah Congressman Mia Love-R is losing to her bid for re-election. Her race has not really been on the radar due to her being a popular Republican Congresswoman in Utah. The fact she is losing in one of the reddest states is a bad sign for we Republicans.

11:41 PM Mike Delph has lost his State Senate seat to JD Ford. Wisconsin Governors race still to close to call. But Evers is holding onto a lead against Walker. 

We are going to sign off for now and have a more in depth look at the midterm results soon. Good night and thank you all for your attention.

Monday, November 5, 2018

Indy Republicans 2018 Election Prediction’s

As promised yesterday we will share our predictions such as they are for the midterm elections taking place tomorrow.We have been continuously amazed and at times exasperated over the past two years. The first race that we are predicting is a race that has received little media attention so far the attorney generals race in Minnesota. The contest is between Republican Doug Wardlow and Democratic Congressman and DNC Vice Chair Keith Ellison. Polls have gone back and forth in this race one poll from two weeks ago showed Doug Wardlow ahead of Ellison 43-36. Another poll taken a week ago shows Ellison ahead by four points. The race has been a rollercoaster with Ellison’s ties to Louis Farrakhan, his anti-semitism, and allegations that he abused a former girlfriend in 2016. With polling swinging back and forth in this race so much we will go out on a limb and say pure guess is unfortunately Keith Ellison will win his bid to be Minnesota’s next Attorney General. We hope we are wrong on this one. But it is possible given Donald Trumps unpopularity in Minnesota that Ellison will win despite his many shortcomings.

We mostly agree with the following from our good friend Paul Ogden’s post from this afternoon in which he stated:

What has not gotten the coverage this year, but which, going into redistricting following the 2020 census, is more important than control of the U.S. Congress, are the Governor races.  The Democrats are poised to wrest seize control of Governor mansions in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Florida.  They also have a shot at winning Georgia.  Although those states have Republican legislatures, having a Democrat governor would even the field when it comes to redistricting.

We unlike Paul don’t see the Democrats winning any state senate seats tomorrow and we believe Mike Delph will hold on against J.D. Ford. Look for the Democrats to pickup 1 to 5 seats in the State House. Donnelly we believe will pull out a narrow win over Mike Braun. If Donnelly wins it maybe due in part to the Indiana Democratic Party’s having sent out the below shown mailers encouraging people to vote for the Libertarian Party Candidate Lucy Brenton as reported recently

We predict that the Democrats will win a net gain of 25-30 seats in the U.S. House. We predict probably no changes in Indiana’s Congressional Delegation. Trey Hollingsworth and/or Jackie Walorski might lose if the Democrats have a really good night. Otherwise no change in Indiana. Unfortunately many of Indy Republican’s favorite Republican Congressmen will probably be among the first casualties tomorrow night. Barbara Comstock in Virginia looks like they will lose, Congresswoman Mia Love of Utah might lose tomorrow according to some polling out of Utah.

In the U.S. Senate unlike Paul Ogden we think the GOP will net 1 to 3 seats instead of 1 to 2. We haven’t completely ruled out a possible upset in Texas by Beto O’Rourke against Ted Cruz. We also believe there is an outside chance that Bob Hugin will upset incumbent New Jersey Senator Bob Menedez. We wouldn’t be surprised if either race produced an upset. But we wouldn’t be surprised by much of anything tomorrow. If we Republicans lose control of either or both Houses of Congress tomorrow we predict that Trump will simply blame the congressional republicans for the loss. We can picture Donald saying: “Well I tried to save them. They didn’t build the wall fast enough. If they had just went out and grabbed as much p$!^y as I have!” And Trump will revert to being a grievance candidate running against both parties and he will become an angrier more unstable Trump. Well here’s to our predictions being more accurate than our 2016 predictions were. 

UPDATE: It looks like their might be a possible runoff for the U.S. Senate in Mississippi according to a recent poll. We have that and some commentary on the poll here:

Sunday, November 4, 2018

IR Will Be Back Momentarily

INDY REPUBLICAN begs our readers forgiveness on not having posted more leading up to the midterm elections this year. The crew all have horrible colds and our day jobs have demanded our attention. We hope to have up our election predictions either today or tomorrow. Thank you for your patience.