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Tuesday, May 2, 2023

RIP, Gordon Lightfoot

Gordon Lightfoot 1938-2023

It is with a heavy heart that we report on the loss of one of Canada’s and the world’s finest singer-songwriters Gordon Lightfoot. Lightfoot died yesterday at age 84. Rolling Stone magazine writing last night about his passing pointed out some of the highlights of the career of this most talented performer:

His most enduring works include “If You Could Read My Mind,” “Sundown,” “Carefree Highway,” “Early Morning Rain,” and “Rainy Day People”

Lightfoot’s deceptively simple songs, which fused folk with pop and country rock, have been covered by everyone from Bob Dylan, Neil Young, Elvis Presley and Johnny Cash to the Grateful Dead, Barbra Streisand, Jerry Lee Lewis, Eric Clapton, Jimmy Buffett, and the Replacements.

Here are some other tributes to Mister Lightfoot’s musical talents:

Wednesday, March 15, 2023

Indy Republican’s View of Principles First 2023 Summit

Having attended last year’s Principles First Summit in Washington DC, naturally our humble correspondent was, of course curious to see just how the mood of the conference would be versus last year.

Also, we were curious to see how attendance would be at this year‘s summit, as opposed to how it was last year this time . We arrived at the Conrad, DC. In enough time to get registered for the summit and to take our place in the ballroom to begin the summit. 

Heath Mayo the founder of Principles first started off the summit by giving a little talk titled “Putting Principles First”, his speech was very well done, and basically covered what he felt are Principles First’s main goals. Heath said the main goal of the summit was to help grow the principled movement, and as Heath pointed out, we are principaled conservatives, and basically our goal is to work to improve our existing institutions, and that we favor empowerment over victimhood and also to point out how the America first movement is fundamentally anti-American, because it does not support the traditional view held by conservatives of America whatsoever. Mister Mayo also criticized the idea held by many at CPAC that unless we elect their particular brand of politicians, then basically the country is finished. This is similar to what Barry Goldwater Road in his final book Goldwater written in 1988, where Goldwater pointed out that “the sky will not fall in a member of Congress or the country, if they are not reelected.”

Next up was a discussion over the subject of why American institutions matter. Bill Kristol started off by discussing his recent trip to Europe, specifically to Prague in the Czech Republic, and had pointed out how they elected a new pro American president, and how, unlike at other times in the past visited me to Europe he was encouraged by many trends he saw there which he viewed to be Pro democracy in nature Kristol also talked about the importance of reforming our institutions, and how institutions can help to mold character he also pointed out how the late great William F Buckley believed in guard rails and how he, Barry Goldwater and President Reagan tossed the John Birch Society to the curb back in the late 1960s early 1970s, which is of course an interesting contrast to President Trump and MAGA World that have embraced and empowered such silliness.

Mona Charen was the next one up to speak. She discussed the nature in which Americas institutions were under attack and does point out correctly that institutions sometimes behave badly and still do but she did discuss the positive aspects of institution such as they can be character building and also they force people to work well together or face consequences when behaving badly. She pointed out how there needs to be accountability in order to make American institutions work better, the most key example that she gave was how the US Congress needs more accountability in order for it to start behaving better and for the members of it to live up to their oaths of office, she did point out though that just nonstop reflective attacks on institutions are what she called “social poison“ she also pointed out how institutions can decline and revive. As an example of she pointed out how the military in the United States had been in a state of decline in the 1970s, but how it started to revive quite a bit in the 1980s and 1990s she also points out how although some institutions such as the Heritage Foundation, Fox News, Claremont Institute, CPAC,etc. had caved into Trumpism. She pointed out that there were many that have refused to do so such as the American Enterprise Institute. She also pointed out how Alexis de Tocqueville said the great thing about America is Americans can create new institutions, overall, Miss Charen seemed to be fairly optimistic about our ability to reform our existing institutions, and also to create new ones, whenwarranted such as an The Bulwark, The Dispatch, and Principles First joining together to promote their ideas, and to push back against extremism on the left and right.

James Waller, who was the last to speak on the subject of American institutions in their value, had stated that institutions are “the secret sauce of American exceptionalism“.

The next topic up for discussion was Americans, foreign policy institutions and Putin‘s war in Ukraine. Tom Nichols, started off by pointing out how now Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida had flip-flopped on Ukraine, and when he was in Congress was a start supporter of supporting America’s allies abroad. Where is now he seems to have flipped on that.

Lieutenant General Mark Hertling pointed out why Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has gone so badly. He pointed out that Putin didn’t take into account sufficiently before launching his invasion. These included not considering just the size of Ukraine’s landmass the fact that it had nine major cities, and that Putin failed to do a troop to task analysis. 

A lot of issues that have been faced he said that have caused the Russians so much trouble fighting the Ukrainian’s, included the Russian army having a weak command structure, badly trained soldiers, and as he pointed out in warfare power equals resources times will. In warfare it’s not just a question of what resources you have, but how are they used. If they are not used effectively then it is ultimately counterproductive. 

The generals commentary on how resources have to be used effectively, and it is not just a question of do you have more and better resources than your opponent could also be applied to many other areas, especially the political sphere one area, which we will has promoted us here at this blog, to do a deep dive into is just how we as principled conservatives can use our resources, most effectively in order to push back against extremism.

The last member of the panel ambassador, Roger Noriega, pointed out that we as ordinary citizens can help support, the Ukrainian war many of whom are temporary in the United States directly, and also to make sure to contact our lawmakers, and to help them to understand that there is widespread support for continuing to help Ukraine. 

Stephen Richer the Recorder of Maricopa County in Arizona discussed how American elections help to uphold our democratic republic. Richer, who is the recorder of Maricopa county in Arizona and has received a lot of pushback for refusing to bend to President Trump and his allies during the 2020 presidential election. He also pointed out ideas on voter persuasion which consist of understanding what voters want, listening and engaging with them.

Governor Wes Moore of Maryland pointed out that the best way that office seekers can help to uphold democracy is that when they run for office is don’t just try to turn out their base only, but to campaign everywhere where they are running. The governor  pointed out during his campaign for governor in Maryland last year, he campaigned in his opponents hometown, while his opponent was away at Mar-a-Lago doing a fundraiser. And it did pay to campaign everywhere because even in areas where they weren’t many people who would support him they would take notice of his presence and several told him he was the first person running for governor to visit their town in 20 years. As to how to push back against election denialism, talk about how election deniers are not strong, powerful people. They are very weak because they have this entitlement mentality that they can only lose if they are cheated out out of a victory which is utterly at variance with our beliefs in free market competition, American exceptionalism, and letting the voters decide who wins.

Next up was Adrian Fontes the secretary of state of Arizona. Fontes said that you win elections by welcoming other voters in, you also have to make the people care about you as a person. If they care about you and what you stand for enough, they will ignore your party label. You have to reach out to people who disagree with you, being a person matters being assertive and aggressive when necessary to defending your values is important, but make sure to reach out to the voters and help to assuage their concerns. They may not agree with you, but if you present yourself well, and you engage with them directly, their concerns about you will be put will be put more at ease. And if they’re fairly comfortable with your person whether you defeat there candidate or not, it makes them less likely to believe that you’re trying to cheat them. 

After taking about an hour and a half or so for lunch, we then reconvened and our next discussion basically was about how to keep the peace after the incident of January 6, 2021 the riot on the capital. To assist in dealing with this question Alyssa Farah Griffin, a former Trump official and now a host on ABC’s The View interviewed Officers Michael Fanone and Harry Dunn, who are both police officers in Washington DC. The officers stated out that to break through the echo chamber of false information. Accountability is the way to do it. One of the reasons why there wasn’t really much of any in the way of violence after last years midterm was because so many of the January 6 rioters are serving time in prison in some cases several decades that definitely has had a deterrent effect against election violence. 

Next up was a live taping of The Bulwark Podcast, which was aired Monday March 6, 2023. The podcast was Charlie Sykes interviewing former US Ambassador to the UN, and former national security advisor John Bolton. Sykes asked good and hard questions of the ambassador and to Bolton‘s credit. He answered things directly, sometimes not to the satisfactory of many of the audience, but he was willing to engage in a venue in which people would not agree with him across the board and we give him great credit for that. After the taping of the episode, we went back to get an autograph from the ambassador, and exchange a few pleasantries with him.

David Frum a good speech, writer, and political scientist, a veteran of both Bush administration’s, and a conservative critic of the presidency of Donald Trump, gave a brief but good speech, where he talked about how what we are doing with principles first is helping to make an impact. This year’s summit was larger than the last. Frum recounted about how William F Buckley in the early 70s moved to revive Conservatism and how in his opinion, he feels working within the two party system is the only way forward. Frum struck to us a more optimistic tone about the possibilities of working within the two party system to defend American traditions, as opposed to last years summit.

The discussion held after Frum’s speech. Was a panel about looking ahead to 2024, what their hopes were and what they were nervous about. Amanda Carpenter said what her hope was is that she hoped that Trump and Ron DeSantis would just destroy each other in the primaries, and that a somewhat sensible Republican candidate would get the presidential nomination. Sarah Longwell wants an alternative Republican candidate for president and also for Trump to lose badly she is of the opinion the only way that we are going to revive a healthy two party system is for the extremist sides of both political parties to suffer so many electoral defeats that they are largely powerless to affect anything on any significant level. We are in agreement with Longwell, and we continue to push back hard against extremism in both parties.

Nicholas Grossman said one thing he was grateful for is, is that Georgia Governor Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensberger, also of Georgia, managed to not only win their primaries with a fair amount of ease, but also went on to easily get reelected, and also the fact that many election deniers lost is very encouraging. Mr. Grossman pointed out though that as did the rest of the panel that it is not just enough for Democrats, especially to oppose the craziness on the Republican side they also have to give people a positive vision going forward not just a reason to vote against Republican extremism, but also a positive case for themselves And also what is needed on the Republican side, is we need more people of goodwill, who are willing to engage in the political process and not be afraid to lose at times. This gave us a flashback to last year‘s conference when Miles Taylor had said what we can do if we want more principled people in politics, is follow the law of supply and demand, if we can increase the supply enough of principled people in politics, we can lower the cost to them of entering, basically following the principle that if you increase the  supply of something, the cost will go down.

Overall we were pleased with this years summit. We are noticeably more optimistic about the future than last year. We hope next year to have more discussions of policy issues and how to organize to reform both parties, and to keep building a more cross partisan coalition of principled conservatives. We were sorely tempted to send some veggie trays to Trump PAC CPAC labeled “Crudite”, but decided against it. Maybe we can troll them more next year!

Thursday, March 2, 2023

Prologue: Principles First 2023 Summit

One of our intrepid reporters is attending this year‘s principles first summit. This is the third summit they have held and the second one that our humble correspondent has attended.

Last year’s summit was an enormous display of optimism and enthusiasm and helped the foundation for many Trumpist’s candidates in last years midterm elections. As conservatives who have seen our good name hijacked by the anti conservative disciples of Donald Trump, we especially look forward to the chance to meet with others in person and share insights, fellowship and strategies. This much sharing of knowledge is much needed and should prove to be an energizing experience as it did last year. 

We will be curious to see how and in what ways the mood of this years summit will be from last year. It is true that we have often felt as isolated from old institutions as many of the leaders of the Protestant Reformation felt 500 years ago from their churches. There will even be a discussion about faith at the summit. We will do our best to keep you updated as fast as possible about the summit and our impressions of it. 

We will especially be watching to see if attendance is higher than last year and also we will be watching to see if CPAC is showing signs of decline from previous years.

We will catch you all later, be safe and God Bless you all!

Tuesday, January 24, 2023

Never Jim Banks & Never Mitch Daniels: The Only Choice.

Paul Ogden has written an article that outlines very well the reasons why Jim Banks should not be the Republican nominee for U.S. Senator. We like Paul share his disdain towards Banks. We had reasonable encounters with Banks long ago, but he has since decided to go for a ride in the clown car of Trumpism. 

U.S Representative/Loser Jim Banks

In writing about Banks, Paul points out very ably Banks deficiencies:

Banks is trying to brand himself as a "proven conservative."  He is anything but.  Besides being an election denier and flouting the Constitution that he took an oath to support, hardly conservative positions, he voted for huge spending increases during the Trump era.  Banks has no problem with reckless government spending...as long as it is a Republican in the White House.

Given how badly election deniers lost in 2022, the nomination of Banks might put the seat into play, especially since it is a presidential election year when Democrats tend to do better in Indiana. It is easy to see the Democrats picking up a lot more metro Indianapolis area votes if Banks' is on the ballot.  In fact, Banks would probably lose Hamilton County and possibly take several Republicans in that county down with him.

Former Indiana Governor and Midget version of Trump, Mitch Daniels

As much as we are usually on the same page with Paul on the issues, we must take issue with his premise that Mitch Daniels would make a better candidate for the Senate as opposed to Banks. Paul’s assessment of Mitch Daniels as a potential Senator:

Fortunately, Indiana Republicans may have a better choice in 2024.  Former Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels is considering a run for the Senate.  I was not a big fan of Daniels as Governor.  He seemed to run a very loose ship and many of his appointees engaged in substantial mismanagement, which sometimes bordered on corruption.  Daniels did not seem to exercise much in the way of oversight over state agencies when he was governor. He'd just appoint someone and immediately check out.

We like Paul we’re not fans of Daniels tenure as Governor. We have a much more negative view of Daniels tenure than Paul does. Daniels didn’t seem to run a loose ship, he did run a loose ship. Also his appointees mismanagement didn’t border on corruption it was corruption! As for him appointing people and checking out, Daniels as anyone who has dealt with him at all can attest is a control freak, the corruption of his administration happened because he allowed and encouraged it to happen! His appointees didn’t go to the bathroom without his permission! As the old saying goes: “A fish stinks from the head down.” So if his administration was bad that’s on Daniels.

There are the issues at the Department of Child Services which may have resulted in the death of Tajanay Bailey back in 2007, the bungled privatization of FSSA which tied the state up for about a decade and cost hundreds of millions of dollars, and not to mention how his creation of the Indiana Economic Development Corporation (IEDC) in essence expanded pay to play politics, and let’s not forget the disastrous “Reign of Error” his administration created at the Department of Workforce Development. Not to mention the role that Daniels lackey Jim Atterholt played at the Indiana Department of Insurance played in forcing out Paul at that agency for just doing his job! 

Paul lastly had this to say of Mitch Daniels:

But when it comes to developing policy, which is the role of a United States Senator, Daniels is excellent.  While Banks' claim to be a conservative is performative, Daniels is an actual conservative, especially when it comes to fiscal matters.  As President of Purdue University, Daniels stopped the explosive growth in college tuition which has for decades outstripped inflation.

All we can say is by what yardstick is Paul using to call Daniels a conservative? If it’s respect for rule of law, Daniels fails. He failed to ensure the law was faithfully upheld when he was Governor, if he had given a damn about the law Paul would never have been fired from the IDOI! And the debacles at the state never would have happened. If we are to go by Daniels record in fiscal matters there Daniels gets a big fat “F”. It’s debatable just how much Daniels has reigned in college tuition at Purdue, but even conceding Paul’s point, the wastefulness of the FSSA debacle alone would outweigh any cost savings at Purdue a hundred times over! In regards to policy, Daniels mismanagement and corruption as Governor happened because of policy and law changes he enacted as governor! As for holding elected officials accountable, Daniels will do no better a job of that than Jim Banks. As Paul knows from personal experience Daniels goes after whistleblowers and protects the offending government officials! We will put links below to some of he and the late great Gary Welsh’s articles documenting Daniels attacks against whistleblowers.

We are proud to have Paul’s support, friendship and encouragement especially since our dear friend Gary Welsh passed. But on this issue we must disagree with him. Like Paul as someone who believes in the traditional conservative principles of Burke, Russell Kirk, Goldwater, Reagan and Buckley. I would like nothing more than to see a good republican be elected to the Senate from Indiana. But I would rather have a good liberal than a faux conservative like Banks or Daniels as senator. I will not vote for a Republican or Democrat who doesn’t stand for the rule of law, limited government and upholding the Constitution. Because none of those are supported by Jim Banks or Mitch Daniels I will not ever under any circumstances vote for either of those fools. 

Tuesday, January 10, 2023

Happy Birthday to Rod Stewart

Sir Rod Stewart

We all want to wish Sir Rod Stewart a Happy 78th Birthday today! Sir Rod has been entertaining us all since the 1960’s with hits such as: “Do Ya Think I’m Sexy”,”Rhythm of my Heart”, “Have I Told You Lately that I Live You”, “Forever Young”, and he has also done his own take on classics such as “Twisting the Night Away” and “Have You Ever Seen the Rain”. There’s no denying Rod’s talents and may he always have the same youthful vigor when he finally reaches if he ever does old age!  

Remember as Rod Stewart says stay “Forever Young”

Congressman Pat Fallon Files Impeachment Articles Against Homeland Security Secretary

Congressman Pat Fallon (R-Texas)

The Hill reports that Congressman Pat Fallon (R-Texas) has filled a motion to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. According to the Hill:

The resolution claims Mayorkas “engaged in a pattern of conduct that is incompatible with his duties,” complaining that he has failed to maintain operational control over the border.

The resolution comes amid a busy week in the Biden administration. President Biden visited the border over the weekend for the first time since taking office, pledging to deliver more resources to the officers who patrol the region.

The primary basis for the articles of impeachment is the claim that Mayorkas lied to Congress — a case they back by pointing to two instances in which the secretary told lawmakers he believed the Southern border was under control.

DHS said Tuesday that Mayorkas has no plans to resign and argued that the grounds for impeachment pointed to by the GOP were both inaccurate and failed to meet the standards to qualify as high crimes and misdemeanors.

“Secretary Mayorkas is proud to advance the noble mission of this Department, support its extraordinary workforce, and serve the American people. The Department will continue our work to enforce our laws and secure our border, while building a safe, orderly, and humane immigration system,” Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs Marsha Espinosa said in a statement.”

Our reaction as conservatives who believe in rule of law, and following sensible customs is that this move by Congressman Fallon is completely stupid and a waste of time. We have many political differences with the Biden administration but impeaching his Homeland Security Chief is just an example of useless showmanship. For starters Mayorkas is not going to be impeached, and even if he was Biden would appoint an acting head of Homeland Security. As more evidence that our fellow Republicans shouldn’t have sold their souls to Trump, it is likely that the Democrats will just use similar tactics towards them and probably much more effectively. If Congressman Gallon’s goal is to make sure the Democrats retake the House in 2024 he is off to a good start.

Monday, November 7, 2022

Indy Republican Predicts the 2022 Mid-Term Elections

Indy Republican’s Magic 8 Ball

Good evening everyone! We are less than 24 hours away to the first closing of the polls for the 2022 Midterm Elections. The polls have been up and down and all around. Despite the fact that we don’t envy anyone who has to make a prediction on this election, we have decided to consult our Magic 8 Ball (pictured above) and take our best stab at predicting tomorrows election results. We will be pleased if we get 30% of our predictions right, but we might not be that lucky.

U.S. House of Representatives Prediction:

We predict the Republicans will mostly likely pickup 10 to 25 seats to take control of the House. The Democrats will undoubtedly pick up a couple seats from Republicans. We predict that Adam Kinzinger’s seat in Illinois and Peter Meijer’s seat in Michigan will go to the Democrats, overall the Republicans will gain the necessary seats to take control of the House. We also expect that Alaska Democrat Mary Peltola will keep her Congressional seat. If she does lose we believe it will be to Nick Begich, we don’t believe former Governor Sarah Palin will win. Her time in politics, much like leisure suits has come and gone!

U.S. Senate Predictions:

We predict that the Democrats will keep control of the U.S. Senate and the breakdown will be either 51D-48R-1Independent (Assuming Evan McMullin wins in Utah), or 50D-50R maintaining Democratic control with VP Harris as the tie breaking vote. 

Here’s our map predicting tomorrow’s Senate results:

Here are some of our breakdowns of a few Senate races:

Pennsylvania: After the May Senate Primary in which Doctor Memet Oz narrowly won the GOP nomination, he kept continuing to trail Democratic Lt. Governor John Fetterman by a considerable margin in the polls. Recently Oz has been catching up and a few times seems to have polled ahead. This race should be a close one, but we predict a Fetterman win if only because of the Democratic Gubernatorial Nominee Josh Shapiro’s coattails.

Georgia: The Georgia Senate contest has been an absolute nightmare for real conservative republicans with former football player Herschel Walker as the GOP standard bearer facing off against incumbent Democratic Senator Reverend Raphael Warnock. This race has been a close one, despite Walker’s history of domestic violence, playing Russian Roulette, forcing women to have abortions, and his admitted dozen different personalities. Inspite of the closeness of the polls we predict a Warnock victory, and a 55% chance that this race will go to a runoff just like it did in 2020.

Arizona: Former Astronaut and incumbent Democrat Senator Mark Kelly started this race well ahead of his unhinged fake Republican Challenger Blake Masters. Recent polls have shown Masters gaining, but due to McCain and Goldwater Republicans hatred of Masters we predict a narrow victory by Kelly. In other Arizona news we unfortunately predict former Obama fangirl Kari Lake will win the Governor’s race.

Alaska: Due to ranked choice voting we may not know the winner in Alaska for a week or two. But we are confident in predicting that Lisa Murkowski will win reelection to the Senate, due to her strong support in the state and most democrats will pick her as their second choice on their ballot.

Utah: We have previously written about the Senate race in Utah between incumbent Republican Senator Mike Lee and Independent Challenger conservative activist and former presidential candidate Evan McMullin. Although Nate Silver’s 538 website gives Lee the edge in tomorrows race, we are going out on a limb and predicting a win by McMullin. We are basing this off of the fact that in the GOP Senate primary this year 38% of the vote was against Lee, also we believe the fact that the Lee campaign has shown itself extremely nervous during this race that indicates they aren’t so sure they will win. We are saying if McMullin doesn’t win it will be a close contest regardless and look for Evan to run again in a couple years for another office.

Nevada: In Nevada we predict that Catherine Cortez Masto will lose to her republican challenger Adam Laxalt. Laxalt seems to be reasonably ahead in this race, and although strange things have happened in Nevada, we don’t think Cortez Masto getting re-elected will be one of them.

Wisconsin: In the Badger state we predict unfortunately that Republican Incumbent Ron Johnson will defeat his Democratic challenger Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes, we think this might be a nail bitter though! 

Iowa: This is a race that looked competitive in theory anyway, our good friend Paul Ogden has written about this race. Unless a miracle happens Senator Charles Grassley will win an 8th term in the U.S. Senate. Which would tie the late Senator Storm Thurmond’s record for longest serving Senator assuming he lives out his term he will be 95 then, old Strom was 100 when he left the Senate. Admiral Mike Franken is a good candidate, and has run a good campaign but he should keep his powder dry to run for another office in Iowa.

Ohio: Former Never Trumper turned psychopathic ass kisser J.D. Vance will unfortunately we predict limp to a narrow victory over his opponent Democratic Congressman Tim Ryan. Ryan has run a good campaign and even if he loses he should run again for office. Should Ryan pull off a win expect a lot of talk of a “Draft Ryan” movement to spring up among Democrats. Elsewhere in the Buckeye State Republican Governor and real man Mike DeWine will crush his democratic challenger. 

New Hampshire:

Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan has and continues to lead in most polls against her Republican Challenger former election denier and retired Army General Don Buldoc. We predict Hassan holds her seat.

Indiana Predictions:

Here in the Hoosier state we aren’t predicting that much in the way of surprises. Let’s start with the Secretary of State’s race:

Secretary of State: Despite some problems that having been dogging the campaign of GOP Nominee Diego Morales we predict that he will defeat his challenger Democrat Destiny Wells. Political writer and keen observer of Hoosier Politics Adam Wren wrote an article for Politico, pointing out that the race could be competitive. So out of respect for Mister Wren’s judgement we are giving Wells an outside chance of winning. 

Indiana State House and State Senate: We predict the Republicans will lose 1 to 3 seats in either or both legislative chamber, because the GOP has hit it’s high water mark and we don’t see any poachable seats for them at this time. 

Indiana U.S. Senate and House Races:

In the U.S. Senate despite some questionable polls being pushed by a very unethical Indiana radio show host, we are firmly convinced that Incumbent Senator Todd Young will easily win a second term against his opponent Democratic Mayor of Hammond Tom McDermmot. 

As for Indiana’s House delegation we predict that Democrat Congressman Frank Mrvan will lose to his challenger Republican Jennifer-Ruth Green, changing the House Indiana delegation to 8 Republicans and 1 Democrat. Andre Carson should easily keep his seat. 

Miscellaneous Predictions: These are just some assorted predictions we are making for a few other races. We predict the Democrats will win the Secretary of State’s race in Arizona, and will pickup the Governorships In Oklahoma, Massachusetts and Maryland. We predict the Republicans will win the Oregon Governor’s office for the first time in 50 years and that the Democrats will narrowly hold onto the Governor’s office in New York.

Possible wildcards for the midterms:

Tonight in Ohio former President Donald Trump is appearing at a rally for JD Vance. Rumor has it that Trump might announce he is running for president in 2024. If that does occur it possibly could affect turnout in the election tomorrow, although early voting has already hit record highs this election cycle, there are still large numbers of voters who will vote in person tomorrow. Trump announcing a 2024 run tonight we predict will most likely have the following effects for Election Day:

1. Trump announcing a run might light a fire under voters that hate Trump and cause those who have not yet voted to stampede to the polls en masse. Would be ironic if several Trumpist’s were to lose because Trump caused his opponents to storm the ballot box!

2. Less likely is Trump’s announcement will cause a stampede of Trump voters to turnout.

3. Trumps announcement really doesn’t make much difference seeing as it would happen only about 18 hours before the first polls open.

4. A combination of 1 and 2 will occur in which both Trump and Anti Trump voter turnout is increased. 

Our gut tells us that option 1 or 4 is most likely to happen. Another thing to lookout for is if any Democrats lose close races and claim the election was stolen. It’s true that in 2020 that it was Republicans with the notable exception of Georgia’s Stacey Abrams who argued there elections were rigged, but it’s not out of the question that some Democrats might decide turnabout is fair play, and decide to give the GOP a taste of their own medicine. But we shall see. Also if Lake, Vance, Oz or other high profile Republican candidates lose will they graciously accept the results or not? We predict Lake and Vance wouldn’t, but Oz might if only to try to revive the Doctor Oz show. But other losing GOP candidates might cry foul if they don’t win. Let’s hope that there aren’t too many election disputes tomorrow. Well that’s it for our predictions. Buckle up friends! It’s going to be a long and bumpy ride!

Tuesday, October 25, 2022

Live Blogging the Oz-Fetterman Debate

Doctor Mehmet Oz Vs. Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman

7:52 PM Good evening, ladies and gentlemen! In about 8 minutes, the TV Wizard of Oz will face off against the Quaker State Giant Lt. Governor John Fetterman. Oz narrowly won his primary in May, and since has proceeded to keep embarrassing himself in his campaign. However Fetterman has had issues since suffering a stroke back in May. Tonight’s debate in Harrisburg could help decide who will be the Quaker State’s newest Senator. So sit back, and relax because we will be watching the debate so you don’t have too! Only prediction we will make is that this will go better than the Biden-Trump debates of two years ago! Buckle up everyone! Let the games begin!

8:00 PM Debate is beginning, Fetterman and Oz are standing by their podiums. Both well dressed, Moderator is explaining the debate rules. The screens with closed captions are pointed out. The screens are to help Fetterman due to side effects of his stroke.

8:03 PM Fetterman is giving his introduction speech. Sounds shaky, but speech content, he vows to keep going.

8:05 PM Oz says he wants to bring civility back to Washington. He then proceeds to attack Oz over his positions on crime. Draw so far. Not sure Oz’s attacks will land.

8:07 PM Oz is attacking Fetterman more than elaborating on his own plans. 

8:08 PM Fetterman points out Oz’s mansions and how he is out of touch with working people. Nails Oz on having his products made in China. 

8:10 PM Fetterman hits Oz as being unable to stand up to special interests. Our feeling so far is that Fetterman although shaky is not embarrassing himself, Oz is going a little overboard with his barbs at Fetterman. Oz will probably use excerpts from the debate to show Fetterman as to I’ll to function as a senator. Fetterman will undoubtedly hit back at Oz and accusing him of being an out of touch elitist.

8:15 PM Oz says he favors higher minimum wage, does favor states deciding their own abortion laws. Fetterman states that the decision of abortion is between a woman and her doctor favors Roe V Wade being codifying into law. Oz opposes a nationwide abortion law. 

8:20 PM Fetterman states that he supports Roe V Wade, also says that he would favor federal funds to transport women to states where they could get abortions.

8:22 PM Fetterman dodges about whether he will release his medical records.

8:25 PM Oz claims he has never profited from medicines advertised on his show. Fetterman says he never has supported Bernie Sanders views on healthcare, points out that Sanders was on Oz’s show years ago and that Oz praised him. Fetterman quips that since Oz seemed to love Sanders so much that he should pretend to live in Vermont, so he can run for the Senate in that state. Good move by Fetterman.

8:28 PM Fetterman says he supports fracking and energy independence. 

8:30 PM Fetterman seems to stumble a little on fracking, Oz starts arguing with the moderator but then shuts up. 

8:31 PM Fetterman says they have successfully pushed back against gun violence, and has helped reduce it. 

8:32 PM So far Oz hasn’t mentioned Trump and seems to be keeping Trumpism at arm’s length. 

8:37 PM Fetterman lists China as our biggest foreign threat. Oz says he thinks the United States is not projecting strength.

8:40 PM Oz says he will support whoever is the GOP Presidential nominee in 2024. Oz says he has confidence in the legal system, 

8:42 PM Fetterman says he will support Biden if he runs again in 2024.

Sorry we had to go quickly earlier, our correspondent got ill, but is feeling better now. The debate struck us in that we are surprised that both candidates tried to sound like they weren’t just down-the-line partisans. Fetterman said they supported fracking and Oz tried to dodge when asked about where he would back Trump in 2024, also Oz’s position on abortion although more consistent with his pre campaign position, would seem to put him at odds with much of the Trumpist right. In that he is opposing national legislation on the issue. 

Our take is in the end the debate won’t move the needle much. Here’s The Focus Group’s Sarah Longwell with her take on the debate:

Friday, October 21, 2022

Is Evan McMullin poised to defeat Utah Senator Mike Lee?

U.S. Senator Mike Lee R-Utah

Evan McMullin Independent Challenger to Senator Lee

Recently The Hill published an article by Alexander Bolton discussing the often overlooked Senate contest in Utah between incumbent Republican Senator Mike Lee, and his independent conservative challenger and former presidential candidate Evan McMullin. Mister Bolton points out that:

The Utah Senate race between conservative Republican Sen. Mike Lee and Independent Evan McMullin has emerged as a potential wild card in the battle for the Senate.

Recent polls show the race is close, with McMullin trailing Lee by only a few points in a state where Republican victories are usually all but guaranteed.

A new poll taken shows McMullin ahead of Lee by four points as reported by GOP strategist Mike Murphy:

There are signs that Lee is not so confident he is ahead as he claims. Just recently he went on Tucker Carlson’s show and started begging Senator Mitt Romney to “Please Get on Board” with his reelection campaign and to endorse him. So far Lee’s crying like a bitch to get Romney to endorse him (Senator Romney has refrained from endorsing either Lee or McMullin), seems to have fallen on deaf ears. Lee’s harsh tone against McMullin is strange especially considering that Lee voted for McMullin for President in 2016. The Indy Republican gang also cast write in votes for McMullin in 2016 and are happy we did. 

In another example of Lee’s bizarre behavior, as Sarah Rumpf pointed out in her column for Mediate, Senator Lee wrote an Op-Ed for the Salt Lake Tribune, which strangely Lee wrote in the third person. Here’s what Miss Rumpf had to say:

The op-ed headlined “Mike Lee has earned a reputation as a principled conservative” had a byline of “Mike Lee.” It’s a short piece — only seven paragraphs comprised of less than 300 words — and adopts the overly earnest tone of a middle schooler’s book report.

It seems that Senator Lee has decided to take after former President Trump, and write about himself in the third person and shower himself with undeserved praise. As Rumpf pointed out Evan McMullin also accepted the Salt Lake Tribune’s offer to write an Op-Ed. Unlike Lee’s rambling third person puff piece, Mister McMullin referred to himself in the first person, and came off as speaking only for himself. Here’s a little sampling of McMullin’s Op-Ed:

I’m Evan McMullin, and I’m running for U.S. Senate not as a member of any political party or as a representative of some special interest, but as a true independent dedicated to serving Utah and our nation.

Right now, Utahns face a choice for the future of our politics and our country. Do we continue down a path of division, partisanship and cynical self-interest that not only threatens our democracy and puts special interests ahead of Utahns, but stifles progress on issues like addressing inflation, stabilizing the economy, lowering health care costs, and protecting our air and water?

Or, do we recommit to the founding ideals in our Constitution that have made America strong, prosperous, and free: namely that we are all created free, that we are all created equal, and that no one is above the law? If we are committed to these ideals, we can find common ground to solve problems on even the most divisive issues.

I served for 10 years in the Central Intelligence Agency, working undercover to take terrorists off the battlefield after 9/11. In my time overseas, I worked with hundreds of patriots, always united by our commitment to the founding ideals that have made America strong. We worked together every day toward something larger than ourselves. That’s what we should expect from our elected leaders, and especially from our U.S. Senators.

Right now in Washington, too many politicians use division as a weapon, wielding it for their own power and personal benefit. They take millions from special interest groups and then vote their way. Some even worked to overturn millions of Americans’ votes in our last presidential election. This was a betrayal of 14 generations of American sacrifice. They tried to destroy our democracy, so long as they would have benefited.

Utah can do better. We’re building a coalition of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents committed to working together to find common ground and deliver real solutions to move our country forward. I hope you’ll join us. Learn more at EvanMcMullin.com.

The contrast between both candidates could not be more stark. Back in 2010 and 2016 we supported Lee because he claimed to be a constitutionalist. But ever since the election of the fake conservative Donald Trump, Mike Lee has betrayed his oath to the Constitution and has shown himself unworthy of holding any office of public trust in these United States.

Whereas Evan McMullin has a long history of service to the United States, he also worked as the House GOP Policy Director for a few years and is familiar with how Congress works. He also had the courage to mount a long shot bid to defeat both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump for the Presidency. McMullin believes in limited government, defending the Constitution, upholding the rule of law, free markets, strong borders and sensible immigration policy. As much as we would like to support a conservative Republican for office. We refuse to support Lee because he is not a conservative and also in the strictest sense of the word he is not a republican, meaning he does not believe in the political philosophy of Republicanism. Because Mike Lee does not and will not stand up for the Constitution and rule of law, we will not endorse him. Because Evan McMullin does support all the right things we do endorse him. We urge all our readers to go to EvanMcMullin.com and donate to his campaign. Evan McMullin has stood up for all Americans and we Republicans here are proud to stand up with him!