Indy Republicans 2018 Election Prediction’s

As promised yesterday we will share our predictions such as they are for the midterm elections taking place tomorrow.We have been continuously amazed and at times exasperated over the past two years. The first race that we are predicting is a race that has received little media attention so far the attorney generals race in Minnesota. The contest is between Republican Doug Wardlow and Democratic Congressman and DNC Vice Chair Keith Ellison. Polls have gone back and forth in this race one poll from two weeks ago showed Doug Wardlow ahead of Ellison 43-36. Another poll taken a week ago shows Ellison ahead by four points. The race has been a rollercoaster with Ellison’s ties to Louis Farrakhan, his anti-semitism, and allegations that he abused a former girlfriend in 2016. With polling swinging back and forth in this race so much we will go out on a limb and say pure guess is unfortunately Keith Ellison will win his bid to be Minnesota’s next Attorney General. We hope we are wrong on this one. But it is possible given Donald Trumps unpopularity in Minnesota that Ellison will win despite his many shortcomings.

We mostly agree with the following from our good friend Paul Ogden’s post from this afternoon in which he stated:

What has not gotten the coverage this year, but which, going into redistricting following the 2020 census, is more important than control of the U.S. Congress, are the Governor races.  The Democrats are poised to wrest seize control of Governor mansions in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Florida.  They also have a shot at winning Georgia.  Although those states have Republican legislatures, having a Democrat governor would even the field when it comes to redistricting.

We unlike Paul don’t see the Democrats winning any state senate seats tomorrow and we believe Mike Delph will hold on against J.D. Ford. Look for the Democrats to pickup 1 to 5 seats in the State House. Donnelly we believe will pull out a narrow win over Mike Braun. If Donnelly wins it maybe due in part to the Indiana Democratic Party’s having sent out the below shown mailers encouraging people to vote for the Libertarian Party Candidate Lucy Brenton as reported recently. 

We predict that the Democrats will win a net gain of 25-30 seats in the U.S. House. We predict probably no changes in Indiana’s Congressional Delegation. Trey Hollingsworth and/or Jackie Walorski might lose if the Democrats have a really good night. Otherwise no change in Indiana. Unfortunately many of Indy Republican’s favorite Republican Congressmen will probably be among the first casualties tomorrow night. Barbara Comstock in Virginia looks like they will lose, Congresswoman Mia Love of Utah might lose tomorrow according to some polling out of Utah.

In the U.S. Senate unlike Paul Ogden we think the GOP will net 1 to 3 seats instead of 1 to 2. We haven’t completely ruled out a possible upset in Texas by Beto O’Rourke against Ted Cruz. We also believe there is an outside chance that Bob Hugin will upset incumbent New Jersey Senator Bob Menedez. We wouldn’t be surprised if either race produced an upset. But we wouldn’t be surprised by much of anything tomorrow. If we Republicans lose control of either or both Houses of Congress tomorrow we predict that Trump will simply blame the congressional republicans for the loss. We can picture Donald saying: “Well I tried to save them. They didn’t build the wall fast enough. If they had just went out and grabbed as much p$!^y as I have!” And Trump will revert to being a grievance candidate running against both parties and he will become an angrier more unstable Trump. Well here’s to our predictions being more accurate than our 2016 predictions were. 

UPDATE: It looks like their might be a possible runoff for the U.S. Senate in Mississippi according to a recent poll. We have that and some commentary on the poll here:

MS Senate (n=1003)

Mike Espy 40
Chris McDaniel 28
Cindy Hyde-Smith 27
Tobey Bernard Bartee 1

Mike Espy will almost certainly advance to a runoff election. It's not clear who his opponent will be.

— Change Research (@ChangePolls) November 5, 2018

I don't think any other poll has McDaniel ahead of Hyde-Smith, but if McDaniel runs second, then Espy would probably be favored in the runoff. It would be very 2018 if the Democrats end up controlling the Senate thanks to having Democratic senators from Alabama and Mississippi... https://t.co/BAmQaTMVBw

— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) November 5, 2018