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Showing posts with label IR Predicts. Show all posts
Showing posts with label IR Predicts. Show all posts

Monday, November 5, 2018

Indy Republicans 2018 Election Prediction’s

As promised yesterday we will share our predictions such as they are for the midterm elections taking place tomorrow.We have been continuously amazed and at times exasperated over the past two years. The first race that we are predicting is a race that has received little media attention so far the attorney generals race in Minnesota. The contest is between Republican Doug Wardlow and Democratic Congressman and DNC Vice Chair Keith Ellison. Polls have gone back and forth in this race one poll from two weeks ago showed Doug Wardlow ahead of Ellison 43-36. Another poll taken a week ago shows Ellison ahead by four points. The race has been a rollercoaster with Ellison’s ties to Louis Farrakhan, his anti-semitism, and allegations that he abused a former girlfriend in 2016. With polling swinging back and forth in this race so much we will go out on a limb and say pure guess is unfortunately Keith Ellison will win his bid to be Minnesota’s next Attorney General. We hope we are wrong on this one. But it is possible given Donald Trumps unpopularity in Minnesota that Ellison will win despite his many shortcomings.

We mostly agree with the following from our good friend Paul Ogden’s post from this afternoon in which he stated:

What has not gotten the coverage this year, but which, going into redistricting following the 2020 census, is more important than control of the U.S. Congress, are the Governor races.  The Democrats are poised to wrest seize control of Governor mansions in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Florida.  They also have a shot at winning Georgia.  Although those states have Republican legislatures, having a Democrat governor would even the field when it comes to redistricting.

We unlike Paul don’t see the Democrats winning any state senate seats tomorrow and we believe Mike Delph will hold on against J.D. Ford. Look for the Democrats to pickup 1 to 5 seats in the State House. Donnelly we believe will pull out a narrow win over Mike Braun. If Donnelly wins it maybe due in part to the Indiana Democratic Party’s having sent out the below shown mailers encouraging people to vote for the Libertarian Party Candidate Lucy Brenton as reported recently





We predict that the Democrats will win a net gain of 25-30 seats in the U.S. House. We predict probably no changes in Indiana’s Congressional Delegation. Trey Hollingsworth and/or Jackie Walorski might lose if the Democrats have a really good night. Otherwise no change in Indiana. Unfortunately many of Indy Republican’s favorite Republican Congressmen will probably be among the first casualties tomorrow night. Barbara Comstock in Virginia looks like they will lose, Congresswoman Mia Love of Utah might lose tomorrow according to some polling out of Utah.

In the U.S. Senate unlike Paul Ogden we think the GOP will net 1 to 3 seats instead of 1 to 2. We haven’t completely ruled out a possible upset in Texas by Beto O’Rourke against Ted Cruz. We also believe there is an outside chance that Bob Hugin will upset incumbent New Jersey Senator Bob Menedez. We wouldn’t be surprised if either race produced an upset. But we wouldn’t be surprised by much of anything tomorrow. If we Republicans lose control of either or both Houses of Congress tomorrow we predict that Trump will simply blame the congressional republicans for the loss. We can picture Donald saying: “Well I tried to save them. They didn’t build the wall fast enough. If they had just went out and grabbed as much p$!^y as I have!” And Trump will revert to being a grievance candidate running against both parties and he will become an angrier more unstable Trump. Well here’s to our predictions being more accurate than our 2016 predictions were. 

UPDATE: It looks like their might be a possible runoff for the U.S. Senate in Mississippi according to a recent poll. We have that and some commentary on the poll here:



Monday, November 7, 2016

INDY REPUBLICAN's Final predictions for Election 2016

Good evening ladies and gentlemen! You all may recall recently we gave you our prediction that John Gregg will win the Governors race. We still stand by that prediction. We are ready to give our predictions in the Presidential, U.S Senate, and US House races here in old Eerie, IN. We predict that Saint Evan will be defeated by Congressman Todd Young in his bid to regain his Senate seat. Donald Trump will carry the state and Hillary Clinton will become our next president. The Democrats will pickup the 9th district seat when Shelli Yoder defeats "Tennessee Trey" Hollingsworth. Otherwise Indiana's congressional delegation remains unchanged. In the state legislative races Republicans will easily keep control of both houses but will lose super majority status in the State House. Nationally the Republicans will easily keep control of the US House of Representatives with a diminished majority. And we give the Democratcs a 50-50 chance at taking the Senate. If Hillary wins the Democratic Governor and former DNC Chairman Terry McCauliffe will appoint Vice President elect Tim Kaine's replacement and the GOP has a shot of winning that seat in 2018. Okay Indiana don't fail us now! We all have high quality dinners riding on the accuracy of our predictions! So if we mess up to bad in our predictions we are out some serious coinage and unlike "Pampered Pence" and "Bagman Holcomb" we have to pay our own way!

Thursday, October 27, 2016

Evan Bayh's residency, Scott Tibbs advocates for merit employment, and INDY REPUBLICAN Predicts Governors Race

Hello fellow malcontents! INDY REPUBLICAN is proud to once again have your attention. Hopefully you have all managed to keep your sanity during this madcap election year! Now for news and views that the powers that be don't want you to have!

First item deals with where Evan Bayh lives. Three days ago the establishment run propaganda rag The Indianapolis Star. Breaking with their longstanding tradition of covering Evan Bayh's worthless ass. Ran a column that details according to Bayh's schedule he didn't once stay at his Indianapolis condo in 2010. The column states:

Evan Bayh says that his Indianapolis condominium has long been his home, and that he has spent “lots and lots” of time there since deciding to run for his old Senate seat. But a copy of his schedule shows Bayh did not stay overnight there once during his last year in office in 2010.


The schedule provided to The Associated Press shows the Democrat spent taxpayer money, campaign funds or let other people pay for him to stay in Indianapolis hotels on the relatively rare occasions he returned from Washington, D.C.
During the same period, he spent $3,000 in taxpayer money on what appeared to be job hunting trips to New York, despite the assertion of his campaign that the trips were devoted to official media appearances.
The AP obtained Bayh’s schedule from a source who requested anonymity because the information was private. The Bayh campaign did not dispute its authenticity.
Earlier this month, the AP reported that Bayh spent substantial time during his last year in the Senate searching for a private sector job, while voting for or seeking changes to legislation that benefited the corporate and financial world.
Since unexpectedly entering the race in July, Bayh, whose primary residence is in Washington, has struggled to explain whether Indiana is home. During an interview with WLFI-TV in August he tried to put the issue to rest, but gave the wrong address for his condo, which is listed on his drivers’ license and voter registration.
“I’ll always be a Hoosier,” Bayh said last week. “We own our condominium. Period. From time to time I would stay someplace else, but our condo has always been our home.”
Bayh stayed at Indianapolis hotels roughly a dozen times in 2010, though taxpayers paid only a few hundred dollars because campaign funds or other people helped pick up the tab.
When asked last month how often he has stayed at his condo during the campaign, Bayh said: “I haven’t kept track, but lots and lots and lots.” He also accused his opponent, Republican Rep. Todd Young, of “using this as a distraction.”
Bayh’s schedule shows the four taxpayer-funded trips to New York between September and November 2010 revolved largely around meetings with a veritable who’s who of American banking and finance, as well as a job headhunter.
Senate ethics rules forbid the use of public money for personal travel. Bayh’s campaign says the trips to New York were justified because he also conducted official business, including giving interviews to journalists.

This is the point where we all start saying Bullshit! When the Bayh campaign says the trips were justified because apparently to them giving press interviews qualifies as "official business"! The staff here are not constitutional scholars but as far as we can tell a Senator's official duties are simply to vote on legislation! How in the Hell does schmoozing with media airheads have anything to do with that! Many have raised serious questions about just when did Bayh decide to not run for reelection in 2010? Paul Ogden raised the question as to why Bayh was retiring rather than running for another term in 2010 you can read that here. Los Angeles radio host and author Larry Elder also discussed this in an article he wrote in 2010! It is nothing short of journalistic malpractice that other than a few here and there, no one in the local or national press has ever challenged Bayh on why he did a HALO jump out of his Senate seat six years ago!


On a better note an alert IR reader found a wonderful article written by Scott Tibbs the author of the blog Conservatibbs. Although we here at Indy Republican like Mr. Tibbs are republicans, and consider ourselves to be very conservative we don't always see eye-to-eye with Scott. But he is always interesting to read. Especially this article he wrote back in August of this year titled: "Ending at-will employment for government" INDY REPUBLICAN, Paul Ogden, and Scott Tibbs all proudly back the Republican tradition of Civil Service Reform. The IR staff, and Mister's Ogden & Tibbs can scarcely be called "liberal" republicans by any stretch of the imagination. But we all feel that the Grand Old Party needs to return to it's true conservative roots of eliminating patronage in all levels of government! We will quote Mr. Tibbs article below:


The Indiana State legislature needs to add an exception to Indiana's "at-will" employment law to make it illegal for government at all levels (city, county, township and state) to fire employees without cause. This would better serve taxpayers and protect employees who are doing a good job.
Yes, civil service protections can be problematic and a permanent bureaucracy is not the answer. We have all heard the horror stories about government employees who cannot be fired and continue to be paid on the taxpayers' dime despite the fact that they lack the competence, professionalism, integrity and skill set needed to do their work. But because they were hired, it is nearly impossible to remove them.
But the way government operates now is not sustainable, especially as the workload becomes more complex. An elected office changes hands and all of the employees are frightened for their jobs. Employees are terrified to point out wrongdoing because they are afraid to lose their jobs, so outright theft happens without anyone trying to do anything about it or even letting the proper authorities know about the crimes. Elected officials remove qualified employees and replace them with people who cannot do the job through nepotism, cronyism and patronage. This is a system that does not serve the taxpayers at all.
The solution, then, is to professionalize local and state government by implementing basic best practices. If local government cannot be trusted to do this voluntarily, then the state legislature needs to force them to do it. Best practices includes removing bad employees, after progressive discipline and good-faith efforts to bring under-performing employees into line. (Obviously, there are some things that require immediate termination.) Leave the politics to the legislative bodies while focusing administrative offices on actually serving the taxpayers instead of serving their political parties.
Fortunately, we have an opportunity to move in that direction by casting the right votes in the general election. Republican candidates for office - specifically auditor candidate Ann Boehm and treasurer candidate Ann Collins - have pledged to end the "at will" nonsense in their offices and follow basic "best practices" with their staff. Electing Boehm and Collins would help, but that will only help those two offices in one of the state's 92 counties. The rest of the state needs the legislature to intervene.


Well put Scott!


Now INDY REPUBLICAN is going to offer our very first ever election prediction! After many months of careful thought and observation. We at INDY REPUBLICAN predict that Democrat John Gregg will become the next governor of Indiana! We feel confident in this prediction because with the exception of a single poll conducted since Eric Holcomb became the republican candidate for Governor. Every poll taken has given John Gregg anywhere from a 2 to 12 point lead. With most polls putting Gregg on average from 2 to 5 points ahead. According to a story on Eagle Country Online published October 20th, 2016:


A new Ball State University and WISH-TV Hoosier Survey released Wednesday gives Gregg a five-point lead over Republican Eric Holcomb, 48 to 43 percent.
The difference is within the poll’s 4.8 percent margin of error. The poll surveyed 544 likely Indiana voters.


Also reported is that  "Holcomb’s campaign reported raising $7.7 million in the third quarter while Gregg has brought in $4.5 million. Gregg does have more money in his campaign war chest, $4.8 million to $2.8 million."


So given the facts that we are less than two weeks away from election and inspite of Holcomb raising more money in the third quarter of 2016 than Gregg. That Gregg still has $2 million more in his campaign war chest than Holcomb. Coupled with Holcomb's less than inspiring campaign, and the fact that Gregg's campaign is sending out more emails, and pounding the ground more than Holcomb. We are fairly confident in Gregg defeating "Bagman" Holcomb! We are not endorsing any candidate for Governor but we do not want Holcomb to win! And if this keeps up he won't! You have been reading INDY REPUBLICAN here on blogger. This is IR and it's staff wishing you all long life and happiness! And if he is reading this up in heaven Gary Welsh you are still our hero!